Flashpoints of Terrorism in Pakistan

Terrorism in Pakistan has multi -ethnic , multicultural and multi-lingual patterns .

Punjabis are the largest ethnic group 44.15%, Pashtuns 15.42%, Sindhis 14.1%, Seraikis 10.53 %, Muhajirs 7.57% ,Baluchis 3.57 % and Others 4.66% 8 million Muhajirs arrived from India in 1947 and 1.7 million Afghan refugees came later making this one of the largest refugee populations in the world .

English is the official language, Urdu national and Punjabi , Sindhi Pashto and Baluchi are regional languages .

Pakistan has 95% Muslim population ,75% Sunni and 25% Shia , the second largest Shia population in the world after Iran . 1.85% are Hindus and 1.6% are Christians , Pakistani society is largely hierarchial. Such diversity results in conflicts created by four types of terrorist groups : language based , sectarian ,race based and religious .

Muhajirs from India settled in Karachi did not want the shifting of capital from Karachi to Islamabad which resulted in a loss of bureaucratic power ,jobs , housing and transport . Consequently they have been blamed for demanding a separate state , province or complete control of city government in Karachi and Hyderabad .

Grievances between Shias and Sunnis date back to the early period of Islam , Deobandis allege that Shias use abusive language against some of the Prophet pbuh s companions and wish that the Shias be declared non Muslim .
They are considered Muslims everywhere including Saudi Arabia ,even the Darululoom Deoband, the Deoband founding madrassa considers Shias as Muslim.
Their Fatwa says that if a person prefers Hazrat Ali but does not believe the other Shia beliefs then he is not Kafir .

Balochistan is less economically developed and has less civil and military representation , they allege lack of provincial autonomy and lesser resources from the federal government. They have minimum population and maximum area and resources are distributed according to population . Some groups propose secession from Pakistan, Baluchis are 3.57% of the total Pakistani population .

Religious militancy in Pakistan is varied , they demand enforcement of Sharia like that by the Afghan Taliban . There is nothing in the laws of Pakistan which contradicts Islamic law and most Pakistanis prefer a modern life than be fundamentalist . There are numerous absolute interpretations of Islam .
Terrorism here today is the result of five factors both internal and external .

1. General Zia conducted a coup detain and ended Bhuttos government in 1977 . Al Zulfiqar came into being after Bhutto s execution and committed terrorist crimes like hijacking . Zia also formed the MQM , a language based party of refugees from India to break the strength of Bhutto s PPP . MQM s inception and evolution brought about violence , this single factor alone was responsible for 90% of the terrorism in urban Sindh and 40% in the country .

2. General Zia enforced some new Islamic laws to legitimize his dictatorship . One of these was the Zakat and Usher Ordinance 1980 . Meanwhile , the Iranian revolution took place and influenced the Pakistani Shia community to demand exemption from this new tax based on Sunni law . As Shias became more forceful , Zia helped form the Sipah e Sahaba , an anti Shia Deobandi organisation . It got funded by both Iraq and Saudi Arabia and formed splinter groups like the Lashkar e Jhangvi . 30% of terrorism is caused by these sectarian groups so about 70% of terrorism in Pakistan is sectarian or language based .

3. The Soviets invaded Afghanistan in 1979 and the US and the Saudis invested 6 billion dollars to train the fighters to overthrow the Soviets .Madrassas proliferated to produce the requisite fighters and Kalashnikovs were handed to them .Zia was in a strong position against the Peoples Party and Shias .

4. The Soviets were defeated in 1989 and the US neglected the fighters it helped train and the fighters felt over confident after defeating tge Soviet Union and ultimately challenged the US .

5. The US invaded Afghanistan in 2001 with Pakistani assistance and this created Arab Mujahideen and Taliban enemies for Pakistan . Drone attacks on Pakistani territory further created a backlash against Pakistan .

India established four consulates and an embassy in tiny Afghanistan and started creating problems in Balochistan province of Pakistan . Weapons used by TTP against Pakistan army in Swat were all US made which US says were stolen in Afghanistan . The US also got worried about the building of Gwadar port by China in Pakistans Baluchistan province , it felt this might decrease US importance in the region .

These were the main triggers of terrorism, the provincial capitals were particularly volatile as those were the government power base .Terrorists felt they wreaked more destruction there , got more media coverage , more targets and more hiding places . Other main areas of conflict were places like Dera Bugti ,Kohlu and Sibi with gas fields and grudges against the federal government . Southern Punjab. , Jhang and Faisalabad also were the focus of terrorist activity due to sectarian conflict . Swat ,D.I Khan and South and North Waziristan had some local conflict .

Karachi became a case study for terrorism with perceptible levels in 1990 attaining a peak in 1995 with   616 incidents .

Karachi has a higher terrorism percentage than what is due to it in population 10% and area 3530 square km 0.44%. Terrorism in Karachi is more frequent because of its demographic composition and being metropolitan and a provincial capital . Terrorism here has more symbolic and theatrical value . Karachi is also unique in being the only source of conflict in Sindh because of its socioeconomic conditions and demographic changes . It had a population of 400000 in 1947 which was 18,00,00,000 in 2009. Population increased because it was the first national capital , only seaport ,first international airport ,industrial base ,financial hub and home to millions of migrants from India ,Afghanistan and Pathans from KP and Punjabis from Punjab .

Karachi has very unusual demographics , capital of Sindh yet only 7.22 %Sindhis .Ninety three percent population comprises of immigrants 48.52% Muhajir , 13.94% Punjabi,Pashto 11.42%, Balochi 4.34%, Saraiki 2.11 % and others 12.44%. Karachi is the largest Pashtun city in the country ,more Baluchis in Karachi than in Baluchistan and it is the sixth largest Punjabi town . The politics of Sindh province has many conflicts : Sindhi v Muhajir , Muhajir v Punjabi, Muhajir v Muhajir and Muhajir v Pathan . Also most of the MQM are Shias and most Pathans Deobandi .

It is also a very young population .In 1987 , 36% of the population was between age 14 and 30. 71% of them were literate while overall Karachi literacy is 55% and overall Pakistan figure is 26.17%. 22% were graduates and the amenities were not sufficient for the rising population . Housing conflicts turn into ethnic rivalry and transport problem accentuates it .

The first ethnic violence was Muhajir v Pathan in 1987 when a Muhajir college girl was killed in an accident by a Pathan van driver . Weapons were cheap and widely available , a pistol could be bought for 3000 rupees $40 dollars and a Kalashnikov for 16 thousand rupees $188 dollars . The MQM split into two factions amid intense violence in 1993 and 1994 .

Main target types were private citizens, private property and businesses as they are soft targets with no defense or deterrence . They are in large numbers , and once attacked , more likely to compel government to give in to terrorist demands .

Data also shows that police are the the target in 10% incidents in Pakistan and rest of the world , they come in as the first line of response and so they are targeted . Military , civil administration and educational institutions , music and barber shops closely follow as targets , these are attempts to destabilize the state .

Another dimension of analysis is the efficacy of weapons employed as per casualties , suicide attacks killed and wounded 42 people per attack , explosives 9.4 , firearms 4.3 and projectiles 7.3 . From 1987 to 1990 explosives were mostly used , from 1991 till 1997 firearms were more frequent and from 1998 till 2007 explosives were more common .

Explosives are difficult to obtain and require more organisation so it is deduced that usually a foreign hand is behind it . Explosives are also mostly used to destabilize the government . Suicide attacks are most damaging and they started in 1995 infrequently till 2001 , after this they spiraled and there were 56 attacks in 2007. Throughout the world there were 188 suicide attacks from 1980 till 2001 but Pakistan had 56 in a single year . Usually the strategic goal is to reclaim homeland but in Pakistan , there is no foreign occupation .

Suicide attacks took place also as a reaction to the government operation on the Red Mosque in Islamabad in July 2007. 8 attacks before the operation and 48 afterwards , most probably the foreign jihadis brought the technique .Arab clerics preached in favor of suicide attacks while the underworld provided funding and bombers were found locally .

Terrorism in Pakistan is an extreme reaction to political and economic grievances and ethnic / religious issues , vested interests provide backup .

The US led invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq brought changes in terrorism patterns in Pakistan .There was an increase in suicide attacks against government institutions . Attacks now are more frequent in KP and Baluchistan ,sectarian and language based incident decreased but ethnic incidents increased as militants multiplied . This definite geographic shift in terrorism is post US invasion of Afghanistan , the area of conflict is now the west of Pakistan . The possibility remains that sponsorship of this terrorism post 9/11 may be from India ,the US or Iran , the implications may be policy related .

These ethnic ,political and religious conflicts are endemic to Pakistan and despite them life went on as normal unless internal or external parties used them to further their own interests . The conflicts resulted from socioeconomic grievances ,issues of provincial autonomy and demographic changes ,these conflicts turned unto sectarian, ethno-linguistic, ethnic-secessionist and religious motives for terrorism .

Places such as Baluchistan , South Punjab ,Waziristan and Karachi were badly affected .

Communism and Capitalism have also played their part since Pakistan came into being, geo-strategic politics of this region has brought about many battles between the two.

India feels encircled and intimidated by Chinese presence near its waters,Gwadar is also an alternative to Dubai and Iran’s new port Chabahar. Therefore , US, India and Iran find Gwadar a threat and terrorism in Baluchistan is closely linked to this factor .

Kalashnikov culture developed in Pakistan as a direct consequence of the Afghan war , US bought Chinese weapons to supply the Mujahideen and half of these got sold in the local market .

Terrorism is cyclical in essence , todays events are a harbinger for what transpires tomorrow.
The cycles are reflective of the immediate past as terrorists prepare, plan and the government is caught unawares . The basis for terrorism remains and terrorists return with a new agenda .

By: Sabena Siddiqi

Note: Al-Rasub is not responsible for writer personal opinion

Tags: article, Flashpoints of Terrorism in Pakistan, opinion

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